Northern Ireland’s Brexit Dilemma: The Election Battleground Ignored by Britain

22 Jul

Grace Link, Masters student at the University of Edinburgh

In Great Britain during the General Election campaign healthcare, the economy, and immigration dominated UK political discourse and party manifestos, with the once-pressing issue of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union falling to the wayside. Yet, in Northern Ireland, Brexit remains a pivotal issue, as concerns over the Northern Ireland Protocol/Windsor Framework defined voter intentions and political discourse.

The Political Landscape in Northern Ireland

Unlike Great Britain, Northern Ireland did not choose between Labour or Conservative as it has its own major parties up for election. The parties are divided along sectarian lines, though the rise of unaligned or ‘other’ parties has threatened this dichotomy in recent years.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), and the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) make up the Unionist camp, with the DUP being the only party to win any seats in 2019 with eight (though this number dropped to seven after the suspension of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson following sexual assault allegations).

Representing the Nationalist camp are Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), winning seven and two seats in 2019, respectively. Though several ‘other’ parties put forward candidates in 2019, only one, Alliance, won just a single seat. Most parties are running in every constituency, with a couple of crucial constituencies representing key battlegrounds where control may change.

The 2024 result saw now change among republicans and non-aligned parties, with Sinn Fein remaining on 7 MPs, the SDLP on 2 and Alliance on 1. The unionist vote however was split; the DUP lost three seats which were won by the UUP, TUV and an independent candidate.

Brexit’s Influence on Party Manifestos

A look at Northern Ireland party manifestos reveals the centrality of the consequences of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in this race. Nearly every one mentions Brexit, the Windsor Framework, or the Northern Ireland Protocol. An interesting trend emerges when you analyse the political leaning of each party in relation to the prevalence of these issues in their campaigns.

Parties like the UUP, DUP, and TUV position the so-called ‘Irish Sea Border’ and the Protocol/Windsor Framework, which allowed for its implementation, as some of the most critical issues in their campaigns. Each has an entire section of their manifesto dedicated to either the Windsor Framework or the Protocol. The farther right the party, the more the ‘Irish Sea Border’ is focused on. Meanwhile, the two nationalist parties eschew issues surrounding the border in the Irish Sea and the Windsor Framework, instead choosing to focus on rejoining the EU through Irish unification. These can be interpreted as ‘selling points’ for a vote for nationalist parties aiming to hold a border poll and unite the Island.

The most interesting revelations come from an ‘other’ party, Alliance. In contrast to nationalist parties, Alliance focuses heavily on Brexit and its consequences throughout its manifesto. Of particular concern is the impact of the UK’s withdrawal on the 1998 Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement. Like nationalist parties, Alliance pays much attention to repairing the UK-EU relationship, but rather than focusing on rejoining the Union, it talks about deepening trade relations and accessing a dual market rather than the Single Market. While party manifestos certainly reflect what matters to voters, trust in government and follow-through with policy promises mean the actual impact of manifestos in determining voter intentions is low.

Voter Sentiment and Polling Data

While the importance of party manifestos to voters has been questioned, similar trends can be observed in polling data. Sixty-three per cent of Northern Ireland voters said that a candidate’s position on the Protocol/Windsor Framework would determine whether they vote for them in the upcoming UK General Election. These results are divided along sectarian lines, with 74% of ‘strongly unionist’ respondents saying they will only vote for candidates critical of the Protocol/Windsor Framework, while 55% of those identifying as ‘strongly nationalist’ saying they will only vote for candidates supportive of the Protocol/Windsor Framework. Interestingly, only 21% of respondents said the effect of the Protocol/Windsor Framework was among their top three current concerns, perhaps reflecting the symbolic importance of the Protocol/Windsor Framework.

Issues surrounding post-Brexit Northern Ireland agreements represent a proxy for the long-standing divides in the country. For nationalists, the fact that Northern Ireland voted to Remain in the EU is a vehicle toward the ultimate goal of Irish Unity. Meanwhile, for unionists, the trade difficulties in the Irish Sea represent a threat to Northern Ireland’s connection to Great Britain. Rather than considering the practical effects of the Protocol/Windsor Framework, Northern Irish voters connect their position on it to deeply held identities and perceive it as a proxy for broader constitutional issues.

Comparison with Great Britain

Meanwhile, the party manifestos in Great Britain, Labour, Conservative, the Scottish Nationalist Party, the Welsh Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, and Liberal Democrats focused on the UK’s relationship with the EU rather than unity or stability in NI. The Windsor Framework and Protocol are notably absent or neglected in all the GB manifestos. While this can be attributed to the fact that Northern Irish voters will not vote for these parties, it reflects a general disinterest in Brexit’s continued impact on a significant portion of UK residents. According to a 29-30 May 2024 YouGov poll, only 8% of Brits said Brexit was a top three concern in deciding how they would vote on 4 July.

In conclusion

As the UK grapples with post-Brexit realities, the Protocol/Windsor Framework dominates the Northern Ireland political landscape, contrasting sharply with the broader UK electorate’s priorities. Brexit has been described as a “poisoned chalice” for campaigners in Britain, where parties shy away from discussing the effects of the withdrawal for fear of reminding voters of the negative consequences of the Leave decision. In Northern Ireland, voters are not just considering these consequences but facing them head-on in a way that Brits seem to fear. The 4 July General Election was a chance for voters to address some of the most pressing issues facing the United Kingdom today, particularly healthcare, immigration, and cost of living, while in Northern Ireland, voters had an additional consideration: Brexit.

Party manifestos:

· DUP: DUP Manifesto

· UUP: UUP Manifesto

· TUV: TUV Manifesto

· Sinn Féin: Sinn Féin Manifesto

· SDLP: SDLP Manifesto

· Alliance: Alliance Manifesto

· Labour: Labour Manifesto

· Liberal Democrats: Liberal Democrats Manifesto

· Conservative: Conservatives Manifesto

· Reform UK: Reform UK Manifesto

· Scottish National Party: SNP Manifesto